Market Indices

Three cryptographically signed composite indices — volatility, sentiment, and stress — each telling a different part of the same market story.

Overview

Mycelia Signal publishes three signed composite indices. Each measures a distinct dimension of market state. Used together, they give a complete picture of current conditions that no single number can provide.

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Reading Them Together

All three indices are most powerful together — MSVI tells you how much the market is moving, MSXI tells you how it's positioned, and MSSI tells you how structurally fragile it is. MSSI and MSXI together define four distinct market regimes:

MSVI — Volatility Index

MSVI measures how much the market is moving, and how extreme that volatility is relative to history. It is the only cryptographically signed composite crypto volatility oracle — five independent signals combined into a single Ed25519-attested number on every paid query.

VIX tells you how scared the S&P options market is. MSVI tells you how scared the crypto market is — and proves it with a signature you can verify independently.

Endpoints

The Five Components

Output scale

MSVI outputs a 0-100 bounded index using min-max normalization against a rolling 2-year history window. Higher values indicate elevated volatility. Lower values indicate calm. During the first 30 days, MSVI outputs raw component values while history accumulates — the normalized field in the response indicates which mode is active.

Canonical string

v1|VOLATILITY|{PAIR}|MSVI|{VALUE}|{UNIT}|30D|RV:{rv}:{w},IV:{iv}:{w},TS:{ts}:{w},FR:{fr}:{w},PCR:{pcr}:{w}|CONFIDENCE:{c}|METHOD:v{m}|{TIMESTAMP}|{NONCE}

v1|VOLATILITY|BTCUSD|MSVI|30.87|index|30D|RV:44.26:0.3,IV:42.66:0.25,TS:0.950:0.15,FR:10.21:0.2,PCR:0.791:0.1|CONFIDENCE:0.9679|METHOD:v1|1744416000|482910

Quick start

curl https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/volatility/btc/usd/preview

# Free preview — no payment required
import httpx
r = httpx.get("https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/volatility/btc/usd/preview")
d = r.json()
print(f"MSVI BTC: {d['value']} ({d['unit']})")
print(f"Confidence: {d['confidence']}")
print(f"Components: RV={d['components']['rv']['value']}, IV={d['components']['iv']['value']}")

MSXI — Sentiment Index

MSXI measures directional market positioning across five independent signals. The sign carries meaning — positive values indicate net bullish positioning, negative values indicate bearish positioning, and the magnitude reflects conviction.

Endpoints

The Five Components

Regimes

Canonical string

v1|SENTIMENT|{PAIR}|MSXI|{VALUE}|INDEX|FR:{fr}:{w},SKEW:{skew}:{w},PCR:{pcr}:{w},TS:{ts}:{w},BASIS:{basis}:{w}|REGIME:{regime}|CONFIDENCE:{c}|METHOD:v{m}|{TIMESTAMP}|{NONCE}

v1|SENTIMENT|BTCUSD|MSXI|-9.88|INDEX|FR:-0.00:0.3,SKEW:-4.12:0.25,PCR:0.863:0.2,TS:0.923:0.15,BASIS:0.049:0.1|REGIME:NEUTRAL|CONFIDENCE:1.0000|METHOD:v1|1744416000|382910

Quick start

curl https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/sentiment/btc/usd/preview

# Free preview — no payment required
import httpx
r = httpx.get("https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/sentiment/btc/usd/preview")
d = r.json()
print(f"MSXI BTC: {d['value']} ({d['regime']})")
print(f"Skew: {d['components']['skew']['value']}")
print(f"Funding: {d['components']['fr']['value']}")

MSSI — Stress Index

MSSI measures systemic market stress independent of price direction. A high MSSI reading indicates the market is structurally fragile — elevated volatility, stablecoin peg pressure, or extreme funding positions that increase liquidation risk. MSSI does not predict price direction; it predicts the potential severity of dislocations if they occur.

Endpoints

The Three Components

Regimes

Canonical string

v1|STRESS|MARKET|MSSI|{VALUE}|INDEX|VOL:{vol}:{w},STBL:{stbl}:{w},FR:{fr}:{w}|REGIME:{regime}|CONFIDENCE:{c}|METHOD:v{m}|{TIMESTAMP}|{NONCE}

v1|STRESS|MARKET|MSSI|17.48|INDEX|VOL:30.75:0.35,STBL:0.00:0.3,FR:19.20:0.35|REGIME:CALM|CONFIDENCE:1.0000|METHOD:v1|1744416000|551079

Quick start

curl https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/stress/market/preview

# Free preview — no payment required
import httpx
r = httpx.get("https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/stress/market/preview")
d = r.json()
print(f"MSSI: {d['value']} ({d['regime']})")
print(f"Vol component: {d['components']['vol']['value']}")
print(f"Stablecoin stress: {d['components']['stbl']['value']}")

Backtest & Validation

We have validated the components with available public historical data from January 2020 to present. The backtest covers realized volatility (Parkinson estimator), funding rates (Binance), and stablecoin peg data (USDC/USDT). Components derived from the Deribit options book — skew, PCR, and term structure — require historical options snapshots not available via public API.

The options-derived components are accumulating history from the live environment from launch. A full methodology validation including these components will be published as sufficient history accumulates.

† FTX two-day sequence: Nov 9 — funding went negative as shorts piled in, MSXI +36.2 BULLISH as contrarian oversold signal. Nov 10 — BTC bounced 10% to $17,601, options components (skew, PCR) flipped sharply bullish as puts were unwound, MSXI hit all-time high of +74.2. Funding remained negative throughout both days. By Nov 11 MSXI collapsed to −4.9 NEUTRAL. MSXI correctly captured mechanical positioning dynamics. It cannot detect counterparty risk.

MSXI partial backtest covers funding rate direction and RV-proxy components only. Full 5-component backtest requires historical Deribit options data.