Macro Risk Score

Cross-domain macro risk score 0–100 combining MSSI crypto stress, MSTI contagion, and economic calendar events. Five regimes. Ed25519 signed. $1.00. 60s cache.

Disclaimer: This is a market regime classification derived from quantitative signals, not financial advice. Past regimes do not predict future outcomes. Always conduct your own analysis before making financial decisions.

What It Does

Combines three Layer 1 and Layer 2 signals into a single cross-domain risk score. Where MSSI tells you about crypto-specific stress and MSTI tells you about contagion between crypto and TradFi, Macro Risk synthesises both alongside the economic calendar to answer one question: how dangerous is the macro environment for open risk right now?

Scoring Model

Input	Weight	Condition	Points
MSSI (crypto stress)	40%	EXTREME	40
		HIGH	30
		ELEVATED	20
		CALM	5
MSTI (contagion)	30%	CONTAGION	30
		COUPLED	20
		MIXED	10
		DECOUPLED	0
Econ calendar	30%	5+ high-impact events today	30
		3–4 high-impact events	20
		1–2 high-impact events	10
Imminent event bonus	—	High-impact event within 2 hours	+10

Risk Regimes

Score	Regime	Typical context
0–19	`LOW`	Calm markets, no macro events, decoupled from TradFi
20–39	`MODERATE`	Normal conditions, light calendar, some coupling
40–59	`ELEVATED`	Elevated stress or heavy calendar, risk-aware positioning warranted
60–79	`HIGH`	High stress + contagion + active calendar — reduce exposure
80–100	`CRITICAL`	Multiple stress signals aligned — extreme caution

Endpoint

Endpoint	Description	Price	Cache	Preview
`/oracle/intel/macro/risk`	Cross-domain macro risk score with full factor breakdown	$1.00	60s	/preview ↗

Response Format

json

{
  "service": "macro_risk",
  "layer": "Oracle Intelligence",
  "risk_score": 80,
  "risk_regime": "CRITICAL",
  "factors": {
    "crypto_stress": {
      "mssi": 57.3,
      "regime": "HIGH",
      "weight": 0.4
    },
    "contagion": {
      "msti": 38.1,
      "regime": "COUPLED",
      "weight": 0.3
    },
    "macro_calendar": {
      "high_impact_today": 7,
      "next_event": "ECB Rate Decision",
      "next_event_time": "2026-06-11T13:15:00Z",
      "next_event_hours": 1.2,
      "weight": 0.3
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "This is a market regime classification derived from quantitative signals, not financial advice...",
  "signed": true,
  "fetched_at": 1781100000
}

Preview Endpoint

Returns risk_score, risk_regime, mssi_regime, msti_regime, and high_impact_today only — unsigned, no full factor breakdown. Useful for quick regime checks without paying for the full response.

bash

curl https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/macro/risk/preview

Agent Use Patterns

Session gate: Call at session start. If risk_regime is CRITICAL or HIGH, pause new position entries until the regime improves.

Position sizing: Map risk_score to a position size multiplier — e.g. score 0–40 = full size, 40–60 = 0.75×, 60–80 = 0.5×, 80+ = 0.25× or no new entries.

Alert trigger: Poll every 60s. Fire an alert when risk_regime changes — particularly LOW→ELEVATED or ELEVATED→CRITICAL transitions.

Payment

x402 only (USDC on Base). $1.00 per query. 60s background cache — all agents querying within the same window receive the same signed snapshot.

Build it yourself: If you prefer to combine the signals yourself, call /oracle/stress/market ($0.05), /oracle/contagion/market ($0.05), and /oracle/econ/calendar/today ($0.05) — total $0.15 vs $1.00. Macro Risk Score is for agents that want a pre-computed, signed, single-call result.