Regime Persistence

How long has the current perp regime held, and how unusual is that historically? Returns duration_hours, historical_percentile, and typical_remaining_hours derived from perp_history.db. BTC, ETH, or SOL via ?currency=. Ed25519 signed. $0.15. 30s cache.

What It Does

Reads perp_history.db directly — no upstream HTTP calls — to compute how long the current regime run has lasted and compare it against all historical runs of the same regime. The historical_percentile tells you where this run sits in the distribution: 90th percentile means this run has lasted longer than 90% of historical runs of the same regime.

Regime classifications are accumulating from live data (started S90, June 2026). The percentile calculations become more statistically robust as history grows — expect meaningful distributions after 30+ days, reliable after 90+ days.

Endpoint

Response Format

{
  "service": "regime_persistence",
  "layer": "Oracle Intelligence",
  "currency": "BTC",
  "current_regime": "NEUTRAL_CHOPPY",
  "duration_hours": 0.5,
  "historical_percentile": 45.0,
  "typical_remaining_hours": 0.3,
  "historical_runs": 199,
  "median_duration_hours": 0.4,
  "disclaimer": "This is a market regime classification derived from quantitative signals, not financial advice...",
  "signed": true,
  "fetched_at": 1781100000
}

Preview Endpoint

Returns all fields — unsigned, up to 24h stale. Note: the 24h stale preview means the percentile and duration may reflect a previous regime entirely. Use the paid endpoint for real-time persistence data.

curl https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/regime/persistence/preview
curl "https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/regime/persistence/preview?currency=ETH"

Interpreting the Fields

Agent Use Patterns

Entry timing: If historical_percentile is above 80th and the regime is favorable (e.g. BULLISH_MOMENTUM), the run is unusually long — regime change may be imminent. Consider waiting for a new regime to establish before entering.

Hold duration: Use typical_remaining_hours as a rough guide for trade duration in regime-following strategies. A NEUTRAL_CHOPPY regime with 0.3h typical remaining is not a basis for a multi-hour hold.

Regime freshness: A regime with duration_hours below 0.5 and low historical percentile is fresh — the regime just established and historically has more time to run.