Layer 4 — Oracle Wisdom
Longitudinal pattern synthesis across signed historical regime data. Coming September 2026.
What Layer 4 Will Do
Layers 1–3 answer questions about right now. Layer 4 answers questions about what this moment means historically.
When a SQUEEZE_SETUP fires on BTC perp today, Layer 3 can tell you the signal alignment and confidence. Layer 4 will tell you: across the last 90 days of signed regime history, how often did a SQUEEZE_SETUP at this MSSI level resolve upward within 4 hours? What regime typically followed? How unusual is the current MSSI reading relative to historical distribution?
These are questions that require a provable historical record — not reconstructed numbers, but per-row original Ed25519 signatures that make the history tamper-evident. That record is being built now.
Why 90 Days
90 days of 60-second index snapshots gives approximately 130,000 signed data points per index. That is enough to compute meaningful regime transition probabilities, identify seasonal patterns, and flag statistically unusual readings — without overfitting to a short window that might reflect a single market regime.
The target date of September 2026 reflects data logging that started in June 2026 across all four indices (MSVI, MSXI, MSSI, MSTI), spot prices, and funding rates.
Planned Endpoints
| Endpoint | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
/oracle/wisdom/perp/context | Historical context for current perp regime — how often has this regime occurred, typical duration, typical resolution direction | Planned |
/oracle/wisdom/regime/sequence | What regime typically follows the current one — transition probabilities from signed history | Planned |
/oracle/wisdom/macro/analogue | Historical analogues to current macro risk score — closest matching periods in the signed record and what followed | Planned |
/oracle/wisdom/index/percentile | Current index reading expressed as a percentile of historical distribution — is MSSI at 65 unusual or typical? | Planned |
The Trust Chain
Every historical data point used by Layer 4 carries the original Ed25519 signature from when it was first computed. This means the historical record is not just a database of numbers — it is a chain of cryptographic attestations that can be independently verified.
When Layer 4 says "SQUEEZE_SETUP resolved upward 68% of the time in the last 90 days," every data point behind that statistic is verifiable. See Signed History for how to access and verify the underlying data now.
Stay Updated
History logging is active as of June 2026. You can check progress by querying /oracle/history/index/mssi/preview — the row count will reflect how many signed data points have accumulated.