TradFi Regime
RISK_ON / NEUTRAL / STRESS / PANIC classification of the traditional finance environment. Combines MESI equity stress, MNVI NQ volatility, and the FRED T10Y2Y yield curve into a single signed regime signal. $0.10. 300s cache.
What It Does
Tells agents whether traditional finance is in risk-on or risk-off mode, and how severe. A single call returns a classification with confidence score, dominant signal, and the underlying MESI/MNVI/yield curve inputs.
Used as an input to Cross-Asset Divergence (which measures alignment between TradFi regime and crypto regime) and Macro Risk Score.
Inputs
| Input | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|
| MESI (equity stress index) | 40% | /oracle/stress/equity |
| MNVI (NQ volatility index) | 40% | /oracle/volatility/nq/usd |
| T10Y2Y yield curve | 20% | FRED (10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread) |
Regimes
| Regime | Condition | Crypto implication |
|---|---|---|
RISK_ON | Low stress, low vol, normal or steep yield curve | Macro tailwind — equity risk appetite supportive of crypto |
NEUTRAL | Mixed signals, moderate stress, no clear direction | No macro edge — crypto trading on its own fundamentals |
STRESS | Elevated MESI/MNVI, yield curve flattening or inverted | Macro headwind — crypto likely to face correlation selling |
PANIC | Extreme MESI/MNVI, acute credit/vol stress | High contagion risk — historical correlation to crypto drawdowns >0.7 |
Endpoint
| Endpoint | Description | Price | Cache | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|---|
/oracle/regime/equity | TradFi regime classification with confidence and input values | $0.10 | 300s | /preview ↗ |
Response Format
{
"regime": "NEUTRAL",
"confidence": 0.70,
"dominant_signal": "balanced",
"inputs": {
"mesi_value": 36.2,
"mesi_regime": "MODERATE",
"mnvi_value": 44.0,
"mnvi_regime": "MODERATE",
"yield_curve_pct": 0.39
},
"signed": true,
"fetched_at": 1781100000
}Preview Endpoint
Returns regime, confidence, and dominant_signal — unsigned, up to 24h stale.
curl https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/regime/equity/preview
Agent Use Patterns
Entry filter: Gate new crypto long entries on TradFi regime. If STRESS or PANIC, require higher confidence from crypto signals before entering.
Divergence check: Pair with Cross-Asset Divergence — if crypto is BULLISH but TradFi is STRESS, the divergence oracle will flag HIGH or EXTREME divergence, surfacing the risk.
Position sizing: Map regime to size multiplier — RISK_ON = full size, NEUTRAL = 0.8×, STRESS = 0.5×, PANIC = 0.25× or no new entries.